The gas supply outlook for Victoria, NSW, SA and Tasmania
AEMO publishes an annual forecast of whether the southern states will have enough gas on the coldest, highest-demand days of the year. The current edition pushes the risk out to 2029 — a year later than the previous edition said. That movement is the most important fact on this page: a forecast is a forecast, and this one has already changed once.
Last updated 2026-08-24
What AEMO actually forecasts
The Australian Energy Market Operator publishes a Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) each year, forecasting whether gas supply into the southern states — Victoria, New South Wales, South Australia, Tasmania and the ACT — will be enough to meet demand on the highest-demand days, not just on average across the year. The 2026 GSOO forecasts a peak-day shortfall risk emerging in southern Australia from 2029, and a more structural supply gap from 2030, as legacy Bass Strait-era gas fields decline.
The 2029 date is not a fixed prediction — it is this year's answer to a forecast AEMO revises annually, and the 2026 edition pushed the risk date back a full year from what the 2025 GSOO forecast. AEMO credits the improvement largely to roughly 30GW of battery storage under development, which reduces how much gas-fired power generation the grid needs, plus increased electrification more broadly reducing gas demand.
Why "a forecast is a forecast" matters here specifically
A year's movement in either direction, in one annual revision, is the clearest evidence available that this number should not be treated as a fixed date to plan around. It depends on how quickly batteries and renewable generation actually get built, how fast legacy fields decline in practice, and how gas demand itself moves as more of the economy electrifies — all of which can shift the next edition's answer again, in either direction.
What is more durable than the exact year is the underlying structural point: legacy southern gas fields are ageing and declining in production, and nothing currently committed fully replaces that decline on its own. That is a genuine planning input even while the exact shortfall date keeps moving — and a reasonable prompt to revisit building specification choices for anything still being designed around gas as the default heating fuel.
What this means for a warehouse or distribution centre
For a facility using gas for space heating or dock-door air curtains, a peak-day shortfall risk is specifically a cold-weather, high-demand-day risk — the kind of day gas heating is most needed, which is an unhelpful correlation if it eventuates. It is a reason to treat gas-dependent heating as a system worth reviewing periodically rather than a "set and forget" building service, particularly for a site in Victoria, NSW, SA or Tasmania, and worth raising specifically for a cold storage facility running gas-fired backup or ancillary heating alongside its refrigeration plant.
It is a separate question from what gas actually costs right now — price and supply-adequacy are two different risks that happen to be moving in the same policy conversation, and a site can be exposed to one without being meaningfully exposed to the other on any given year. It is also a genuine input into where a gas-dependent operation locates in the first place, alongside the usual questions covered in choosing an industrial precinct.
- AEMO's 2026 GSOO: peak-day shortfall risk in southern states from 2029
- A structural supply gap is forecast from 2030 as legacy fields decline
- The 2025 GSOO forecast the same risk a year earlier — this is a forecast that moves
- Batteries and electrification are the reasons the 2026 forecast improved
The policy response, and its timing
The government's Domestic Gas Reservation Scheme, requiring LNG exporters to reserve 15–25% of production for the domestic market, was announced on 22 December 2025 and is intended to start in 2027. It is aimed at the same underlying supply picture this page describes, but it does not change anything about gas availability on the ground yet — it is a policy commitment with a future start date, not a current condition.
A facility weighing whether gas dependence is a long-term risk worth planning around should treat this page, the fuel-cost exposure it creates for an LPG forklift fleet, and the reservation scheme's 2027 start date as three separate but related timelines, each worth checking again as AEMO's next GSOO edition and the ACCC's next quarterly report are published.
Common questions
- When does AEMO forecast a gas shortfall in the southern states?
- The 2026 Gas Statement of Opportunities forecasts peak-day shortfall risk from 2029, and a more structural supply gap from 2030. Both are forecasts, not settled outcomes, and both are revised annually.
- Has this forecast changed before?
- Yes — the 2026 GSOO pushed the shortfall risk out a full year compared with the 2025 edition, credited mainly to battery storage development and electrification reducing gas-fired generation demand.
- Which states does this forecast cover?
- Victoria, New South Wales, South Australia, Tasmania and the ACT — the states served by the southern gas market AEMO models separately from Queensland's gas market.
- Does the Domestic Gas Reservation Scheme fix this risk?
- It is aimed at the same underlying issue, but it starts in 2027 and only applies to new LNG export contracts, so it does not change gas availability today.
Sources
- Pearls and Irritations — Batteries and electrification buy time on gas — Reports AEMO's 2026 GSOO shortfall timeline and its improvement versus the 2025 edition. Published 28 March 2026, reporting AEMO's GSOO released around 26 March 2026.
- ABC News — Government confirms gas reservation plans — Domestic Gas Reservation Scheme announcement date and mechanics.
Part of our guide to industrial energy costs.